As Chinese interests continue to amplify, China is reaching out to upgrade its ability to protect its interests beyond the Great Wall. Last year witnessed a three dimensional approach from Beijing to increase its area of influence across land, in the sea and into space.
International concern was triggered by an interview published on a Chinese Defence website. Yin Zhuo, a retired Admiral, now a senior researcher at the navy's Equipment Research Centre, came up with a proposal to set up a permanent base to support ships on anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden. This has raised international concern in general and in India in particular that China was preparing to build naval bases far from its shores.
Yin's proposal came in the backdrop of the release of a Chinese cargo ship with a 25 member crew from Somali pirates after the payment of a 3.5-million-dollar ransom. While highlighting the need of an oversea naval base, Yin Zhuo said, "I feel that it would be appropriate if we could have a relatively stable, fixed base for supplies and maintenance."
In support of his argument he stated that the first of the four PLA Navy task forces sent to the Gulf of Aden had to spend 123 days at sea without calling at any port, leading to resupply, medical, and morale problems. He stressed that a naval base would provide Chinese sailors with assured access to fresh fruit, vegetables, and water, as well as communications, repair, medical, and other facilities.
Further he noted that these bases would facilitate the fulfillment of mounting global expectations on Beijing as a global stakeholder. But, he was also quick to assert that he foresaw the need for only a few bases and China did not need to send its navy everywhere.
Although it was published on a Chinese defence website, Chinese authorities were quick to detach themselves from the proposal. Later on, Chinese Defence Ministry clarified that, "An overseas supply base might be an option in the future, but it's not being considered at this time." However, the Ministry asserted that the PLA Navy would continue its existing practice of supporting its Gulf of Aden operations through the use of maritime resupply at sea and temporary access to a French base at Djibouti.
From the Chinese analyst point of view, the need of overseas bases has risen from increasing expectations placed on Beijing, its growing interest in foreign countries, and its ability to protect those interests. Besides, the proposal is in itself an indication of change in the PRC’s existing doctrines. Till date China does not have any permanent base of operations outside its own territory. Yin’s proposal further reinforces the Chinese defense analysts’ arguments on modifying the "no foreign bases" doctrine. However, if media reports are to be believed, China is reportedly interested in establishing naval bases in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Thailand and the South China Sea to protect its sea lines of communication.
From a strategic point of view, owning an overseas naval base near the Middle East and Africa will give China an advantage to exhibit its military might and maintain forward military operations in other military contingencies. The region holds great value for Beijing as it imports much of its oil, natural gas, and other raw materials from here. Moreover, if China is successful in making one overseas base, then the future can witness more such developments
Elaborating on the implications on India if China establishes foreign bases, an Indian analyst Pankaj Kumar Jha, at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, observed that,” If the bases are closer to its coastline then it will have some implications but it would be US which would be more perturbed. India will be disturbed only if the bases are close to Andamans like Rondo, Coco Islands or western coast of Malay Peninsula. More so only bases are not enough, one must have power projection capabilities like aircraft carrier. China does have sea denial and deterrence capability because of nuclear submarines but lacks projection capabilities.”
In response to a question as to how should India counter this threat, Jha said,”To my belief there is no such thinking. But if India has to devise something then it can act on building an axis with Vietnam and Indonesia. One must understand that Vietnam and Indonesia can act as a counter balance to China if India organizes its military diplomacy in a proactive and productive framework. Also with increasing closeness between US and Vietnam as well as Indonesia being an old ally of US this looks feasible. The other option is to closely cooperate with Japan and Australia with regard to naval co-operation, which is very much on the cards.”
Words like expansion and encroachment are not new for the Dragon, but every time it is used it sounds alarm bells around the world and in India. But, the question of China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean remains a serious concern to India.
