Saturday, March 15, 2008

Shedding Skin: Gen Mush casts off his ‘second skin’ and its consequence on India

Finally the general kept his word. Pakistan's beleaguered chief General Pervez Musharraf at last cast off his "second skin" and stepped down from Pakistan Army’s top position. 

After reigning as the supreme commander of the Pakistan armed forces for nine long years since 1999, General Pervez Musharraf passed over the baton to the new Chief of Army Staff, Gen Ashfaq Kiyani.

Entangled in the midst of unprecedented pressure on International fronts, especially the US and escalating opposition from the home front with the return of political heavy-weight rivals Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, Musharraf took the decision to step down from the top position. With this, Musharraf enters a new power struggle but without the comfort of his uniform. Nevertheless to ensure his grip on power, he chose to appoint trusted aides and confidants like Gen Tariq Majid and Kiyani in important positions in the Army. 

On this significant move, DefenceIndia tries to explore the implications on India and what lies beneath the General’s latest move on the political chessboard. Our team spoke to notable think-tanks.

Reacting to this recent event, Maj Gen (Retd) Ashok Krishna opines, “Situation will be as it was before, ISI is the key organization which conducts all the activities against India to weaken India Internally and make it bleed by thousand cuts. Musharraf was part of ISI and is responsible for ISI and what has happened…They will continue to perpetrate terrorism and their policy of weakening India will still continue. In Pakistan, the army still has control so whatever happens Pakistan army will have its stamp. The greater the instability in Pakistan the greater will be its fallout on India.”

The very fact that newly appointed General Kiyani is the first ISI chief to command the 500,000-strong army and his significant role during during the 2001-02 stand-off between India and Pakistan when India initiated Op Parakram reinforces Maj Gen Ashok Krishna’s views. 

Suggesting a better option, Maj Gen (Retd) Ashok Krishna said, “Change is only possible when we have a civilian leader and army is put in place. As far as this change is considered it will not improve any thing. Situation will remain same or might worsen.”

“Situation will neither be beneficial nor will it change, it will remain same, he is still the president and supreme commander of the forces. It is good to have a new chief for a dynamic force. This change is of no significance as far as India is concerned. Democracy will only take shape once duties are delegated”, Maj Gen (Retd) Y.K. Gera said.

Air Marshal (Retd) Vinod Patney adds, “There will be not much difference, the Army still holds the real power, and we will have to be on guard, it will take some time to settle. Only after the elections one will be able to say if there is stability. As long as the army rules we can’t say it is a new beginning. We will have to wait and watch, we can’t say anything at this stage. If stability in Pakistan is undermined then it will be worse. Now boundaries of privileges will be more demarcated.”

Speaking on the similar lines, Col (Retd) Anil Shorey asserted, “There will be no difference, army will still control, Gen Mushrraf is still the president, he knows the pulse of the Army and it will be the same situation. He has his best men in most sensitive posts and now he can focus on the elections, things might get tightened.’’

Pointing at the role of the newly appointed General, Col Shorey adds, “Gen Kayani will now prioritise and focus on all the shortcomings of the Army and will dedicate time and funds on Equipments, Manpower, Morale and Training of the Army. As for the Pakistani Army, it is good to have new chief who will focus on the Army alone as he is Sensible, Mature and a balanced soldier.”

Further, Col Shorey said “The Indian Army will have to now be on guard and focus on these issues as well. As for India, the situation remains the same, we will have to wait and watch.”

But the key question for India is what will be the effects of existing Indo Pakistan relation in the wake of this significant move? Will India see a new dawn in the current relations? Or the relation will transform from good to better; or even worse? 

(Source: Defence India; inputs by Mrs. Priyanka Charan)