NEPAL: WHAT NEXT?

After the end to the brief but traumatic reign of King Gyanendra, in the first ever historic meeting of the Constituent Assembly (CA) on 28 May 2008, Nepal was formally declared as a Federal Democratic Republic. It was followed by Nepal’s efforts to draft a new constitution of its own. However two year later, on the same date, the CA of Nepal failed to deliver the country’s long awaited constitution, by the set deadline. The new constitution was seen as an end to the decade old civil war and an effort to preserve a multi-party democracy. However, the passing of the deadline with no concrete result has diminished the high hopes of the Nepalese people generated during the general elections.

Meanwhile, Nepal’s three biggest parties — the Maoists, the Nepali Congress (NC), and the Unified Marxists-Leninists CPN (UML) - agreed to breathe life into the CA and a three-point agreement was drawn. According to the accord, the three parties agreed, first, to bring a logical end to the peace process and accomplish the historical goal of drafting a new Constitution; committed to accomplish duties in consensus and in unity. Second, to extend the tenure of the CA by one year. Third, to form a National Unity government in consensus and ensure that the Prime Minister of the current coalition government is ready to extend his resignation.

With numerous predicaments in front of the nascent republic, the rise of ‘New Nepal’ aspirations continue to battle for their emergence, in the face of continuous conflict and unresolved differences among political forces, delay in making of the new constitution, bewildering political and legal tangles, widespread corruption, indefinite general strikes, escalated political violence, ethnic conflicts and so on. Living under the state of persistent disorder and power struggle, the purpose and emoluments of the peace process and the general elections seem to be defeated. Highlighting the key reason behind the ongoing political mayhem, in an exclusive email interaction with IPCS, Former Ambassador of India to Nepal, KV Rajan said, “The root of the problem is the trust deficit between the key parties, which poses a serious threat to peace apart from being the major obstacle to writing the constitution.”

Given the present dilemma, the question which requires immediate consideration from the Indian perspective is - what the Indian government’s policy should be towards Nepal. Should New Delhi play an active role or should it just act as a silent spectator in the purlieu? Pointing to the role of India in the Nepal’s current situation, KV Rajan emphasized that India should use its leverage to bring the parties together on a common minimum programme so that the Constitution is written in time and the next election could be held in an environment of peace and stability.

Accentuating on India’s role, distinguished academician SD Muni, Visiting Senior Research Fellow of Institute of South Asian Studies, in an exclusive email interaction with IPCS said, “Indian policy should aim at re-building national consensus in Nepal to facilitate the writing of a new and democratic Constitution during the extended period of the CA.” In his opinion, India should desist from its fixation of keeping the Maoists marginalized in the power structure. Pointing at the role of Maoists, he opined that the Maoists should shed off their militant structures but that should be accompanied by the whole gamut of security sector reforms in Nepal and the grounding of democratic values among the other mainstream parties like NC and the CPN (UML).

Commenting on Nepal’s recent development in an exclusive electronic interaction with IPCS, Anjali Sharma, Associate Fellow, Observer Research Foundation said that, “Nepal as a country has become very important these days given the heightened political tensions among the leaders of the three major parties of Nepal.” While elaborating on India’s role, she opined that India has been adopting a hands-off approach towards a crisis-ridden Nepal. Although, almost all Nepali leaders pay regular homage to the South Block and there may have been some covert initiatives taken by India to resolve the crisis, no overt intervention on the part of India can be said to be forthcoming in the near future. She further suggested that the only option left for India is to 'wait and watch' to see how the things unfold in the near future in Nepal. Like in Sri Lanka, India should only advice Nepal as and when it seeks our advice.

There is no doubt that the failure of the CA to frame the new constitution has become one of the toughest challenges to the basic architecture of the 2006 peace deal. Since the internal political turmoil continues to ravage the tiny Himalayan state, it has become essential not only for New Delhi, but also for the international community to see that Kathmandu gets full assistance in its nation building efforts. In the meantime, India should play a more positive role in assisting Nepal, in order to overcome its present political impasse. For India, a stable Nepal is essential to maintain strong political, economic and social ties between the neighbouring countries.

Source:- http://www.ipcs.org/article/south-asia/nepal-what-next-3142.html

CHALLENGES BEFORE INDIA’S INTERNAL SECURITY: COUNTERING TERRORISM

The dawn of the 21st century has witnessed the rise of a most serious crisis in the form of global terrorism. Irrespective of their position, power, influence and progress, all nations across the globe have experienced the disastrous impact of terrorism. India has been a particular victim of this form of warfare for at least the last four decades. In the backdrop of the growing and altering non-conventional and conventional threat perception and the metamorphosis of the world into a global village coupled with easier access to technology, today terrorism is one of the most challenging internal security threats that India is dealing with.

The term ‘terrorism’ is exceedingly difficult to explain. A Chinese philosopher describes it as, “to kill one and frighten a thousand”. In simple words, “terrorism is the indiscriminate use of force to achieve a political aim”. It involves committing outrageous acts in order to precipitate political change. Terrorism is also distinguished by its non-state charter even when terrorists receive military, political, economical and other means of support from states. The object of a terrorist act is to deliberately target the innocent with surprise use of violence.

Terrorism in India has had a long and violent history going back several decades. But, in the recent past it has witnessed a series of strikes in many parts of the country. The last decade has witnessed lethal strikes on the Indian Parliament on 13 December 2001, synchronized series of attacks in the economic hub of India, Mumbai on 26 November 2008, and the bomb blast in the technology, educational and real estate hub of India, Pune on 13 February 2010. As per the Annual Report of the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) 2009-2010, “there are subversive/extremist/terrorist activity in Jammu and Kashmir and various States in the North- Eastern region particularly Assam and Manipur; Left Wing Extremism is concentrated in five or six States but is found at some places in other States also.”

As terrorism emerges as one of the greatest threats to India’s internal security, the government, policy makers and strategic community continue their efforts to find an anti-dose to counter the menace of terrorism. Poignantly, the Mumbai terror strike in 2008 exposed the fissures in the India’s internal defense apparatus as it was caught unaware and unprepared. However, the incident provided the Indian government an important lesson to prepare itself and deal with the new-age terrorism. A stringent series of measures have since been initiated to revamp its existing homeland security apparatus to shield and secure the country against future terror aggressions.

The Annual Report of the MHA 2009-2010, has identified a number of new measures undertaken by the government to strengthen the country to meet the grave challenge posed by global terrorism. These include operationalization of the National Investigation Agency (NIA), establishment of four National Security Guards (NSG) hubs to ensure quick and effective response to any possible terror attack, augmentation of the strength of Intelligence Bureau (IB), strengthening of the Multi-Agency Centre in the IB to enable it to function on a 24X7 basis and strengthening coastal security.

With an alarming rate, the threat of terrorism is changing and becoming more and more deadly. Terrorism is no longer confined to a particular region or state, but it has become globalized and operates in a network system. With globalization and advancement in technologies, terrorism has also spread in the veins of all nations and India is no exception. Before 11 September 2001, terrorism was perceived as a local affair. It was condemned but not seriously dealt with by the international community. However, the massive blow of 9/11 came as a wake-up call to the international community and shattered the earlier complacency. Today terrorism is no longer considered an internal affair of one state, but one that has an international connotation. Each act of terror, no matter where, is often linked to, or supported by terrorists somewhere else.

Working together in the fight against terrorism and supporting India’s active role in its fight against it, the Obama Administration has recently asked Congress to double its anti-terrorism budget to India. While testifying before a Congressional Committee, the Coordinator for Counterterrorism in the Department of State Daniel Benjamin said, "Under our fiscal year (FY) 2011 request, India's Anti-terrorism assistance (ATA) bilateral budget would almost double, to US $4.5 million, to meet the increasing political will on the part of the Indian government, which has requested more and higher-level training in the aftermath of the Mumbai attack.” However, apart from providing India with funds, the Obama Administration should help India in its battle with cross border terrorism and bring the brain behind terrorist strikes against India to books.

http://www.ipcs.org/article/india/challenges-before-indias-internal-security-countering-terrorism-3126.html

HASINA'S VISIT TO PRC: IN QUEST OF A COMPREHENSIVE PARTNERSHIP

In an attempt to carve out innovative ways to strengthen the more than three decades old bilateral and diplomatic relations with the emerging Asian giant, Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina undertook a high-profile five-day official visit to China. It was her first visit to China since taking the charge of Bangladesh’s new government, after the landslide victory in December 2009 elections. The much anticipated high level talks between Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina with her Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao, yielded in the resolution to create a "Closer Comprehensive Partnership of Cooperation" from the strategic perception, with a firm basis on the principle of Panchsheel. This was a crucial steeping stone in Sheikh Hasina’s ambition to get a "comprehensive partnership" with Beijing. The landmark talks dealt with a spectrum of issues that were significant for both the countries. China gave a positive answer to Hasina’s call for Chinese financial aid and technical support for development projects, collaboration in agriculture and power sector. Chinese premier Web Jiabao assured Hasina of an overall backing and support in all areas. The talks can be summed up into five broad issues.

First, issues of international and regional importance were discussed. Stressing on one of the most dangerous issue that is threatening the security apparatus across the globe, Bangladesh PM advocated for concerted steps towards the elimination of terrorism and militancy. Another highly debated issue on the international forum, which was emphasized during her visit, was the issue of climate change. As Bangladesh experiences the rage of nature throughout the year, Hasina called for China’s support in dealing with the challenges of climate change. On the regional front, both the countries agreed to boost cooperation for safeguarding peace, stability and development of South Asia. Underlying the importance of regional cooperation, Sheikh Hasina underscored the need to augment cooperation among the countries of the region, with special reference to both the Asian giants, India and China. Moreover, Hasina also emphasized the need for cohesive efforts to stamp out poverty from the region.

Second, on the infrastructure development issue, China continues to remain a major partner in Bangladesh's economic development venture. In this direction, both the countries signed three major agreements and a MoU comprising Commitment of Chinese Government in assisting Bangladesh in important infrastructure development projects. Beijing also agreed to provide Dhaka with technical and financial assistance for building its infrastructure and industry. China also agreed to cooperate with Bangladesh in the construction of a US$8.7 billion, strategically-significant deep seaport in Chittagong and building a road link between Chittagong and Kunming. China desires to utilize this port as a passage for its southern Yunnan province. Apart from this, the Agreement for Construction of the 7th Bangladesh-China Friendship Bridge was also signed and a grant was given for the building the Chinese Exhibition Centre.

Third, on the economic front, Sheikh Hasina’s efforts in convincing Beijing, to reduce the trade gap also gained success. As per the Bangladesh government, the trade gap between the two countries was almost US$4 billion as of June 2009. China gave a green signal to duty free access of Bangladeshi products, to its market. It also decided to write off loans given to Bangladesh till 2008 and offered a soft loan to Dhaka. Moreover, agreements on Economic and Technical Cooperation Agreement with Adequate Grant and Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Bangladesh-China Cooperation in Oil and Gas sectors were also signed. According to the media reports, China National Petroleum Corporation signed a MoU with two Bangladeshi groups in this sector. Hasina also invited Chinese investment in "promising sectors" like textiles, machineries, fertilizers, gas and energy, footwear, ceramics, IT outsourcing and healthcare, in Bangladesh.

Fourth, in the agricultural sector, China agreed to continue to lend support to Bangladesh, as the nation has a history of being battered by the fury of nature, in the form of floods and droughts. Sheikh Hasina productively sought China’s cooperation in the areas of river dredging projects, modernizing flood forecasting and warning centers, hybrid rice production technology and in launching and setting up of remote sensing satellites. Besides, both the countries signed the Framework Agreement for Construction of Shahjalal Fertilizer Factory. In regard to the Brahmaputra river management issue, Bangladesh was able to earn appreciation from China regarding its proposed joint management of the river.

Fifth, past records of Bangladesh and China defence cooperation has been very strong. Year 2002 saw the landmark defence cooperation between both the countries. The Sino-Bangla defence pact made China the first country to have broad-based defence cooperation with Bangladesh and it is a chief source of materials and equipment for the armed forces of Bangladesh. Continuing the tradition of strong defence cooperation, Sheikh Hasina requested the Chinese government to provide two frigates with three helicopters under long term loan assistance.

Highlighting the success of the “timely, important and significant” visit, Bangladeshi Foreign Minister Dipu Moni said that Hasina’s trip to China was “extremely effective and productive and opens up a new chapter of the Sino-Bangladesh cooperation.” The visit exemplified Sheikh Hasina’s excellent diplomatic proficiency in reviving the warmth between the two nations. Adding a new chapter in their thirty five year old relationship, the recent visit was successful in creating a milieu of mutual trust and an opportunity for both the nations to rekindle interdependence in economical and political relations. In addition to this, it gave Sheikh Hasina an opportunity to perform a balancing act between the two Asian giants, in the backdrop of her visit to India in January.

Source:- http://www.ipcs.org/article/china/hasinas-visit-to-prc-in-quest-of-a-comprehensive-partnership-3074.html

INDIA’S ENDEAVOUR TO ATTAIN SPACE SECURITY ASSET

The evolution of information technology has metamorphosed the very dynamics of contemporary warfare. In the current scenario, national security not only relies on the modernization of armed forces, cutting-edge defence technology and innovative policies, but also on elusive assets like communication and information. There is a transition, from the race of arms, nuclear weapons, weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), towards the race of information dominance. The enhanced use of information, expeditious chrysalis of microcomputers, information technologies and cyberspace has changed the very face of war and emerged as a new challenge for national security. The avidity to acquire more information and intelligence to counter and design future warfare puts an intense demand on space assets.

Accentuating the advantages of space assets, James A Lewis, a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, asserts that using satellites and space services for national security provides several important benefits. First, space services are a force multiplier for conventional forces, as they improve capabilities and performance. Second, space services can significantly expand intelligence collection and analysis for assessing threats and providing warnings. Nations can, of course, conduct military operations, collect intelligence, and plan their security and strategic functions without access to space assets and services, but those that make use of space will have an advantage over their adversaries and competitors. Finally, space programs are an element of national power – they increase prestige and provide technological prowess than can expand a nation’s influence and leadership on the international stage.

After decades of waiting on the sidelines, India has imbibed the importance of space assets due to a series of transitions taking place in its geopolitical environment, uncertain and altering international security order, indispensability of gaining information dominance and decisive role of information in asymmetric warfare with rapid technological advancements. Moreover, its face-off with cross border terrorism, infiltration bids, and especially the Kargil experience, further reinforced its determination to look towards space as an imperative option for national security. The resolve to create its own alcove in space assets has today made India one of the major space actors in Asia. Seen as one of the most active players in Asia after China, India is rated as a world leader in the remote sensing data market. India's vigorous peaceful space programme has made noteworthy all-round progress.

According to the Department of Space Annual Report (2008-2009), the Indian space programme made phenomenal progress in its quest towards mastering critical technologies and witnessed several major accomplishments. A major event was the successful launch of India‘s first mission to the Moon, Chandrayaan-1. The Indian space programme recorded another major success with the launching of 10 satellites utilizing the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) from Sriharikota that included India‘s advanced remote sensing satellite CARTOSAT-2A, Indian Mini Satellite (IMS-1) and eight nano satellites for international customers. In addition to this, 2009 witnessed the successful launch of seven satellites - OCEANSAT-2, four CUBESAT Satellites and two RUBIN-9, Radar Imaging Satellite (RISAT)-2 and Anna University Microsatellite (ANUSAT) from Sriharikota. Moreover the two major operational space systems – Indian National Satellite (INSAT) and Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) satellites have continued to provide reliable services to the nation.

On the international podium, India is already working in a technological alliance with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States (US). Formal Memoranda of Understandings (MOU) have been signed with Australia, Brazil, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, China, European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), European Space Agency (ESA), France, Germany, Hungary, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mauritius, Mongolia, Myanmar, the Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Russia, Sweden, Thailand, United Kingdom , Ukraine, the US and Venezuela. Today developing countries are looking up to India for research assistances and support.

However, India needs to accelerate its space missions, keeping pace with China’s rapid development in this field. Elaborating on motives that guide both China’s civil and military space efforts, James A Lewis pointed out that, “China looks to these new technologies to provide asymmetric advantage against the US and other potential opponents. This means that military space architecture for China will look very different from that used by the US or Russia.” News reports indicate that, “China's space program is poised to surge ahead in 2010. In fact, over the next 12 months, China's activities in space may be such that 2010 could well rank as one of China's top years thus far in terms of the total number and variety of missions launched.”

Moreover, Pakistan-China bilateral cooperation in the space industry should be also noted. Recent years have witnessed their collective efforts to advance their space and science and technology cooperation. For example, China was a great force to provide momentum to Pakistan’s space programme in 1990. Beijing catapult Islamabad’s first satellite, Badr-A, from its Xichang Launch Center. Both countries are working together in space industry, cyber-security, climate science and so on.

Meanwhile India too is moving ahead, The Indian navy plans to create and sustain a three dimensional, technology enabled network centric system with its dedicated satellite support system. Moreover, efforts like expected launch of spy craft, called the Communication Centric Intelligence Satellite is another concrete step in attaining a secure space architecture. The use of space to provide an invincible shield and strengthen national security from future electronic warfare threats is no more a distinct dream, but an upcoming reality.

Source:- http://www.ipcs.org/article/military/indias-endeavour-to-attain-space-security-asset-3071.html

AGNI-II NIGHT TRIAL FAILURE BRINGS DEFENCE FLAWS TO LIGHT

Dashing the high hopes pinned on it by the defence forces, the Indian missile fraternity and the entire nation, the maiden night trial of the nuclear weapon capable Agni-II failed recently. The mission’s aim was to test the missile’s reliability in adverse conditions, however, the missile failed to pass the test. The term failure is not new to us. We have perhaps become used to this word, especially when it comes to defence equipment and trials of other indispensable armory that makes a country self-reliant on the defence front. Here Light Combat Aircraft [LCA] and the much-troubled Main Battle Tank [MBT] deserve a special mention.

With the government spending tens of millions of taxpayer’s money, these recurring failures raise serious concern and questions in the minds of the defence and scientific fraternities and also in the minds of common people regarding the fact that despite tens of millions being pumped into these programmes and government assurances that the best technology is in use, these failures continue to reoccur. As pointed out by one of the analysts, the debacle highlights serious, structural problems within the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), and its chronic inability to overcome them.

Pointing out the inefficiency of the DRDO despite a whopping annual budget of US$670 million, Admiral L. Ramdas, a former chief of staff of the Indian Navy revealed that the DRDO isn't the world's most reliable weapons R&D agency. The Indian armed services' experience with DRDO-made armaments has not been a happy one. Their reliability is often extremely poor. ‘We often used to joke that one had to pray they would somehow work in the battlefield.’

The arena of science and defence technology is very dynamic, constantly changing and of course not a cake walk. One failure can have several reasons and no experiment comes with the guarantee of a hundred percent success rate. In the past we witnessed an example of scientific disappointment in 2006 during the launch failure of Indian Space Research Organisation’s (ISRO) Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) carrying the Insat-4c communications satellite. Moreover, Agni-II’s last test on 19 May was not fully successful either.

But what makes the failure of Agni-II so important that the entire media has been flooded with the news of its failure? The answer is threefold; first the test launch was significant from India's strategic point of view as it was the first time since the beginning of DRDO’s missile development programme that a missile was tested in the night. It was a major step towards making it fully operational in the Strategic Forces Command (SFC), which unfortunately was a failure. Second, the recent report indicating that Pakistan, with the help of China and North Korea, has surpassed India in the missile arena is a cause of worry. Third, General Kapoor’s announcement, hours before India tested the nuclear enabled missile Agni-II, that the Indian sub-continent is prone to nuclear war, meant that the test failure put our preparedness with regard to how we are going to deal with this kind of conflict and instability into question.

This brings us to the question of how much this failure harms the image of the country, which aspires to be a superpower one day. These kinds of failures can prove to be intensely embarrassing for the nation's prestige and raise doubts about India’s military-industrial high-tech capabilities. It also highlights our inefficacy in learning from our past shortcomings and political limitations and prevents India from fulfilling its ambitions to pursue a military capability, which would give it a superpower standing.

With its military capability being questioned, embarrassment on the international front and disappointment on the domestic front, what immediate steps can be taken to rectify these enormous errors? One of the answers lies in DRDO’s accountability and transparency. As a taxpayer, citizens have the right to know how their hard earned money is being used. If the organization undertaking the enormous responsibility to work on these programmes fails to accomplish the objective it should be accountable to one billion Indians. The nation is not looking for a statement full of scientific jargon but a statement that states that why we failed and who is taking responsibility for it and how the error is going to be rectified. There is an urgent need to overhaul the entire DRDO machinery. The DRDO should come out with facts, for they relate to the country's security and tax payer's money.

In addition to this, the government should take a serious look into the matter as reoccurrences of this kind do not improve the image of the country’s defence system either in the domestic stratum or on the international pedestal. The need of the hour demands that the government looks into concrete measures to stem the rot in the existing system as the country’s territorial integrity and security is at stake with these kinds of failures. Not only is Agni missile success indispensable in providing a strong strategic position for India but it is also an answer to China’s striking capability to hit the Indian gangetic plain from Tibet. It is also capable of hitting any part of Pakistan, which is plagued by political instability and fear of a Taliban managed coup. Looking at the current scenario where power respects power and meek remains weak, such events should be dealt with, with extraordinary swiftness and absolute commitment so that there is no room for error in future.

Courtesy:- IPCS

http://ipcs.org/article/india/agni-ii-night-trial-failure-brings-defence-flaws-to-light-3024.html

CHINESE NAVAL AMBITIONS – CONCERN FOR INDIA?

As Chinese interests continue to amplify, China is reaching out to upgrade its ability to protect its interests beyond the Great Wall. Last year witnessed a three dimensional approach from Beijing to increase its area of influence across land, in the sea and into space.

International concern was triggered by an interview published on a Chinese Defence website. Yin Zhuo, a retired Admiral, now a senior researcher at the navy's Equipment Research Centre, came up with a proposal to set up a permanent base to support ships on anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden. This has raised international concern in general and in India in particular that China was preparing to build naval bases far from its shores.

Yin's proposal came in the backdrop of the release of a Chinese cargo ship with a 25 member crew from Somali pirates after the payment of a 3.5-million-dollar ransom. While highlighting the need of an oversea naval base, Yin Zhuo said, "I feel that it would be appropriate if we could have a relatively stable, fixed base for supplies and maintenance."

In support of his argument he stated that the first of the four PLA Navy task forces sent to the Gulf of Aden had to spend 123 days at sea without calling at any port, leading to resupply, medical, and morale problems. He stressed that a naval base would provide Chinese sailors with assured access to fresh fruit, vegetables, and water, as well as communications, repair, medical, and other facilities.

Further he noted that these bases would facilitate the fulfillment of mounting global expectations on Beijing as a global stakeholder. But, he was also quick to assert that he foresaw the need for only a few bases and China did not need to send its navy everywhere.

Although it was published on a Chinese defence website, Chinese authorities were quick to detach themselves from the proposal. Later on, Chinese Defence Ministry clarified that, "An overseas supply base might be an option in the future, but it's not being considered at this time." However, the Ministry asserted that the PLA Navy would continue its existing practice of supporting its Gulf of Aden operations through the use of maritime resupply at sea and temporary access to a French base at Djibouti.

From the Chinese analyst point of view, the need of overseas bases has risen from increasing expectations placed on Beijing, its growing interest in foreign countries, and its ability to protect those interests. Besides, the proposal is in itself an indication of change in the PRC’s existing doctrines. Till date China does not have any permanent base of operations outside its own territory. Yin’s proposal further reinforces the Chinese defense analysts’ arguments on modifying the "no foreign bases" doctrine. However, if media reports are to be believed, China is reportedly interested in establishing naval bases in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Thailand and the South China Sea to protect its sea lines of communication.

From a strategic point of view, owning an overseas naval base near the Middle East and Africa will give China an advantage to exhibit its military might and maintain forward military operations in other military contingencies. The region holds great value for Beijing as it imports much of its oil, natural gas, and other raw materials from here. Moreover, if China is successful in making one overseas base, then the future can witness more such developments

Elaborating on the implications on India if China establishes foreign bases, an Indian analyst Pankaj Kumar Jha, at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, observed that,” If the bases are closer to its coastline then it will have some implications but it would be US which would be more perturbed. India will be disturbed only if the bases are close to Andamans like Rondo, Coco Islands or western coast of Malay Peninsula. More so only bases are not enough, one must have power projection capabilities like aircraft carrier. China does have sea denial and deterrence capability because of nuclear submarines but lacks projection capabilities.”

In response to a question as to how should India counter this threat, Jha said,”To my belief there is no such thinking. But if India has to devise something then it can act on building an axis with Vietnam and Indonesia. One must understand that Vietnam and Indonesia can act as a counter balance to China if India organizes its military diplomacy in a proactive and productive framework. Also with increasing closeness between US and Vietnam as well as Indonesia being an old ally of US this looks feasible. The other option is to closely cooperate with Japan and Australia with regard to naval co-operation, which is very much on the cards.”

Words like expansion and encroachment are not new for the Dragon, but every time it is used it sounds alarm bells around the world and in India. But, the question of China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean remains a serious concern to India.

Source:- http://www.ipcs.org/article/china/chinese-naval-ambitions-concern-for-india-3045.html

Impact of Terrorism

In the first instance, therefore, global terrorism created a kind of global community sharing a common fate, something we had previously considered impossible. Ulrich Beck

The dawn of 21st century witnessed the most dreadful crisis and most alarming challenge of the globe in form of terrorism. Irrespective of their position, power, influence and progress, all the nations across the globe have experienced the disastrous effect on terrorism.

The origin of this phenomenon is still unclear and dates back to the ancient civilization of Rome and Greece, even before them. Human history has bleeded countless times with the lethal weapon of terrorism and the worse part is that till date is still battered by it.

The term terrorism is notoriously difficult to explain. A Chinese philosopher saying goes, “Kill one and frighten thousand”. To put in simple words, terrorism is an indiscriminate use of force to achieve political aim. It involves the commission of outrageous act in order to precipitate a political change. Terrorism is also distinguished by its non-actor charter even when terrorist receive military, political, economical and other means of support from states. Besides that, terrorism deliberately and specifically targets the innocent with surprise use of violence. 

Terrorist in order to maximize to physiological effect of an attack their activity have deliberate unpredictable quality, the element of surprise.

According to the FBI definition, “Terrorism is the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a Government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives”.

There are many reasons for the emergence of terrorism, where some are genuine and some are vested interest. But one of the causes of terrorism is a staunch belief that ‘my way is the only way’. However some genuine reasons are economic deprivation in form of unemployment, wealth disparities, lack of basic amenities and discrimination.

Political frustration has emerged as an explosive cause of terrorism. Regional disparities, which take form of separatist movements where concentration of economic infrastructure and gains are at selected places, attempt to secure regional autonomies. Intervention into religious, social and personal freedom also results into the outburst of terrorist activities. 

With an alarming rate, the threat of terrorism is changing and becoming more and ore deadlier. Terrorism is no longer confined to a particular region or state, but it has become globalized and operates in a network system. With globalization and advancement in the technologies, terrorism has also spread in the veins of all nations. 

Before September 11, 2001, terrorism perceived as a local affair. It was condemned but not seriously dealt by the international community. However the massive blow of terrorist attack in form of 9/11 shattered the fools paradise in which we were living and exposed the short coming of international community in general and USA in particular in combating the world of terrorism. Now the terrorism was no more a local affair but was the most important crisis in front burner. 

 In today’s scenario, the plinth of terrorism has extended rapidly and with every stroke of attack its impact became more deeper , massive and deadly. With any terror strike the normal life is put in jeopardy. Whether it is Sept 11 of USA or 26 July of Mumbai blast, the whole normal life is disrupted, gripped in fear and smoke of devastation hovers all around. The atmosphere which was moments ago was full of life, with an act of terrorism is reduced to lifeless, fearful and uncertain environment. Suddenly nothing seems to be working and everything that the man strives down comes tumbling down like twin towers.

Broadly the impact of terrorism may be classified into economic, socio-culture and political. In economic effect, terrorism derails an economy and nothing can be more serious than halting an entire process which seeks to optimize the human welfare and country’s development. Under terror strike, the process of growth comes under heavy strain and the pace of change is slowed down. The adverse economic effect can be named as, strains on ongoing activities, setback to augmentation efforts and new ventures. With the changing scenario scenario thrust are required to be placed on new economic programmes in line with globalization, liberalization and mounting competition. Terrorism act as speed breaker to these initiatives. Besides million of rupees are spend to combat terror menace which instead could have been used for human welfare

Socio cultural effect of terrorism are more deeply rooted and have lasting effect. Growing are puts breaks on the progress of society towards its betterment. Social effect may principally can be divided into , the effect on education and emancipation, social harmony and human psychology. Terrorism creates deep scar in human mind and build up atmosphere of distrust, fears and ignites differences among communities, states and countries.

Terrorism has a far reaching deadly effect on the political situation of a country. It has lethal potential to bring chaos and disorder in a country. It weakens the roots of an established political authority. The political effect of terrorism are mainly manifested in the form of instability, hindrance to the growth of democracy and loosening of administrative authority.

To conclude no part on this globe is now free from the destructive effect of terrorism. It has taken many forms like narco terrorism, nuclear terrorism, kidnapping, illicit trade, bombing, hijacking etc. It a a lurking danger on the peace of entire globe and have to be dealt with iron hand by the international community. We have to stand together fight this menace which have deprived human what is rightfully their right, the right to leave and grow peacefully. But for that we need coordinated effort , single indeed devotion, political will anti terrorist measures, counter terrorist measure and shared intelligence reports.

Then only we can achieve the world for what our fore fathers made sacrifices.
Where the mind is without fear and the head is held high;
Where knowledge is free;
Where the world has not been broken up into fragments by domestic walls;
Where words come out from the depth of truth;
Where tireless striving stretches its arms towards perfection;
Where the clear stream of reason has not lost its way into the dreary desert sand of dead habit;
Where the mind is led forward by thee into ever-widening thought and action--
Into that heaven of freedom, my father, let my country awake.
Rabindranath Tagore